V.F. Corporation (VFC) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade F · Bearish
$16.84
$18.23
+8.3%
3/10
F
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $18.23 (+8.3%). Slightly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
FCF DCF Model
$21.89
EV/EBITDA
$1.03
Blended Fair Value
$18.23
Confidence
Low
Methods
FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) (conservative), EV/EBITDA (turnaround)
Quality Analysis
32/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-22.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.9%
D/E Ratio
3.6x
Current Ratio
1.4x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -22.4% (need >15%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -0.9pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 3.6x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 1.7x (4/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$20.00
+18.8% Upside
21 analysts
Range: $18.00 — $25.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($16.83) is 0.2% below SMA 200 ($16.87). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 56/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+107.4%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of VFC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of V.F. Corporation (VFC) is $18.23. This is calculated by blending FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) (conservative), EV/EBITDA (turnaround) and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is VFC a buy, sell, or hold?
VFC currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is VFC a high-quality stock?
V.F. Corporation has a quality grade of F (32/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -22.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.9%, and D/E ratio of 3.6x.
What type of stock is VFC?
VFC is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 29.5x, Mature growth: -7.0%, High debt: D/E 3.6x, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Dividend paying: 2.1%
What do Wall Street analysts say about VFC?
21 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $20.00 for VFC, representing +18.8% upside. Targets range from $18.00 to $25.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in VFC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for VFC is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +107.4%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for VFC?
VFC is in a bearish trend. Price ($16.83) is 0.2% below SMA 200 ($16.87). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 56/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.