Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Unknown
$11.98
$15.26
+27.4%
4/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $15.26 (+27.4%). Significantly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$3.65
FCF DCF Model
$15.57
Blended Fair Value
$15.26
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
22/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-27.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.0%
D/E Ratio
3.2x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
-29x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -27.8% (need >15%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -8.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 3.2x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -29.2x (0/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.68 (4/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$13.00
+8.5% Upside
Range: $9.00 — $57.00
Analyst consensus data not available.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.49:1
Expected Return
+5.9%
Bull Upside
+40.3%
Bear Downside
-16.2%
Good asymmetry: 2.49:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of WBA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) is $15.26. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is WBA a buy, sell, or hold?
WBA currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is WBA a high-quality stock?
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. has a quality grade of F (22/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -27.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.0%, and D/E ratio of 3.2x.
What type of stock is WBA?
WBA is classified as a "value" in our framework. High FCF Yield: 142.4%, Mature growth: 3.7%, High debt: D/E 3.2x, Dividend paying: 2.1%
What do Wall Street analysts say about WBA?
Multiple Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $13.00 for WBA, representing +8.5% upside. Targets range from $9.00 to $57.00. The consensus recommendation is "—". Analyst consensus data not available.
What are the risks of investing in WBA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for WBA is 2.49:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.49:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +5.9%, with bull case upside of +40.3% and bear case downside of -16.2%.
What is the current trend for WBA?
WBA is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.