Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade F · Bullish
$27.53
$20.51
-25.5%
0/10
F
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $20.51 (-25.5%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$14.97
FCF DCF Model
$35.79
EV/EBITDA
$7.32
Blended Fair Value
$20.51
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
19/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-1.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.4%
D/E Ratio
7.5x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -1.2% (need >15%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -1.4pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 7.5x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 0.9x (0/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.80 (6/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 6.3pp (need <5.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$34.00
+23.5% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $24.00 — $36.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($27.52) is 12.9% above SMA 200 ($24.38). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 66/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.57:1
Expected Return
-2.6%
Bull Upside
+69.3%
Bear Downside
-44.0%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.57:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CZR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) is $20.51. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is CZR a buy, sell, or hold?
CZR currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 0/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is CZR a high-quality stock?
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. has a quality grade of F (19/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -1.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.4%, and D/E ratio of 7.5x.
What type of stock is CZR?
CZR is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 9.3%, Mature growth: 3.0%, High debt: D/E 7.5x, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.77
What do Wall Street analysts say about CZR?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $34.00 for CZR, representing +23.5% upside. Targets range from $24.00 to $36.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CZR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CZR is 1.57:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.57:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is -2.6%, with bull case upside of +69.3% and bear case downside of -44.0%.
What is the current trend for CZR?
CZR is in a bullish trend. Price ($27.52) is 12.9% above SMA 200 ($24.38). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 66/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.