Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade D · Bullish
$26.89
$25.61
-4.7%
3/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $25.61 (-4.7%). Approximately at fair value. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
FCF DCF Model
$34.95
EV/EBITDA
$11.28
Blended Fair Value
$25.61
Confidence
Low
Methods
FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) (conservative), EV/EBITDA (turnaround), Revenue Multiple (turnaround)
Quality Analysis
51/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
0.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.7%
D/E Ratio
0.8x
Current Ratio
43.0x
Interest Coverage
-8x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Low profitability margins
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$30.00
+11.6% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $26.00 — $34.50
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($27.05) is 11.7% above SMA 200 ($24.22). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.08:1
Expected Return
+6.9%
Bull Upside
+34.5%
Bear Downside
-16.6%
Good asymmetry: 2.08:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of IVZ?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) is $25.61. This is calculated by blending FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) (conservative), EV/EBITDA (turnaround), Revenue Multiple (turnaround) and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is IVZ a buy, sell, or hold?
IVZ currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is IVZ a high-quality stock?
Invesco Ltd. has a quality grade of D (51/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 0.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.8x.
What type of stock is IVZ?
IVZ is classified as a "value" in our framework. High FCF Yield: 12.1%, High dividend: 3.1%, Mature growth: 2.2%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.57, Dividend paying: 3.1%
What do Wall Street analysts say about IVZ?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $30.00 for IVZ, representing +11.6% upside. Targets range from $26.00 to $34.50. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in IVZ?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for IVZ is 2.08:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.08:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +6.9%, with bull case upside of +34.5% and bear case downside of -16.6%.
What is the current trend for IVZ?
IVZ is in a bullish trend. Price ($27.05) is 11.7% above SMA 200 ($24.22). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.