Lennar Corporation (LEN) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade B · Bearish
$82.85
$13.97
-83.1%
3/10
B
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $13.97 (-83.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$0.28
FCF DCF Model
$1.42
EV/EBITDA
$102.00
Blended Fair Value
$13.97
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
85/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
2.6%
D/E Ratio
0.3x
Current Ratio
3.1x
Interest Coverage
198x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.8% (need >15%, got 16/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: 2.6pp (got 6/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.3x (13/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$92.00
+11.0% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $88.00 — $125.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($82.69) is 26.4% below SMA 200 ($112.36). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 29/100 — Very weak technicals. Multiple bearish signals active.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.51:1
Expected Return
+3.2%
Bull Upside
+24.4%
Bear Downside
-16.1%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.51:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of LEN?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Lennar Corporation (LEN) is $13.97. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is LEN a buy, sell, or hold?
LEN currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is LEN a high-quality stock?
Lennar Corporation has a quality grade of B (85/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of 2.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.3x.
What type of stock is LEN?
LEN is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 11.9x, Mature growth: 4.5%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.42, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Dividend paying: 2.4%
What do Wall Street analysts say about LEN?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $92.00 for LEN, representing +11.0% upside. Targets range from $88.00 to $125.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in LEN?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for LEN is 1.51:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.51:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +3.2%, with bull case upside of +24.4% and bear case downside of -16.1%.
What is the current trend for LEN?
LEN is in a bearish trend. Price ($82.69) is 26.4% below SMA 200 ($112.36). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 29/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.