Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade F · Bearish
$12.93
$23.64
+82.8%
4/10
F
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $23.64 (+82.8%). Significantly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$1.48
FCF DCF Model
$25.86
Blended Fair Value
$23.64
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
32/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-3.5%
D/E Ratio
34.7x
Current Ratio
0.3x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
1/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -3.5pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 1/3 years (7/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 34.7x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 0.7x (0/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.29 (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$15.50
+19.9% Upside
8 analysts
Range: $13.00 — $18.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($12.93) is 18.8% below SMA 200 ($15.92). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 51/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.01:1
Expected Return
+6.2%
Bull Upside
+80.4%
Bear Downside
-40.0%
Good asymmetry: 2.01:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PLAY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) is $23.64. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is PLAY a buy, sell, or hold?
PLAY currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 4/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is PLAY a high-quality stock?
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. has a quality grade of F (32/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 12.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -3.5%, and D/E ratio of 34.7x.
What type of stock is PLAY?
PLAY is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 46.8%, High debt: D/E 34.7x, High revenue volatility: 25.0% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.82
What do Wall Street analysts say about PLAY?
8 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $15.50 for PLAY, representing +19.9% upside. Targets range from $13.00 to $18.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PLAY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PLAY is 2.01:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.01:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +6.2%, with bull case upside of +80.4% and bear case downside of -40.0%.
What is the current trend for PLAY?
PLAY is in a bearish trend. Price ($12.93) is 18.8% below SMA 200 ($15.92). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 51/100.
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Last updated: June 12, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.