ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade B · Bullish
$22.88
$23.18
+1.3%
6/10
B
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $23.18 (+1.3%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$31.64
FCF DCF Model
$18.68
EV/EBITDA
$26.54
Blended Fair Value
$23.18
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
84/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
14.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.4%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
1.5x
Interest Coverage
39x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.4pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$28.35
+23.9% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $26.60 — $30.10
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($22.88) is 5.6% above SMA 200 ($21.67). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 85/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
0.68:1
Expected Return
-1.2%
Bull Upside
+15.5%
Bear Downside
-22.6%
Poor asymmetry: 0.68:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ZTO?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is $23.18. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is ZTO a buy, sell, or hold?
ZTO currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is ZTO a high-quality stock?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has a quality grade of B (84/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 14.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.4%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is ZTO?
ZTO is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 13.5x, High dividend: 3.0%, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Moderate growth: 11.1%, Dividend paying: 3.0%
What do Wall Street analysts say about ZTO?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $28.35 for ZTO, representing +23.9% upside. Targets range from $26.60 to $30.10. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ZTO?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ZTO is 0.68:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 0.68:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is -1.2%, with bull case upside of +15.5% and bear case downside of -22.6%.
What is the current trend for ZTO?
ZTO is in a bullish trend. Price ($22.88) is 5.6% above SMA 200 ($21.67). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: June 16, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.