AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis
Score A+Compounder · Grade A · Bearish
$3,361.45
$5,159.87
+53.5%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 8.2:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $5159.87 (+53.5%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$5,436.10
FCF DCF Model
$5,314.65
EV/EBITDA
$4,866.87
Blended Fair Value
$5,159.87
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
109/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
19.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
10.4%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
7x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.88 (8/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$4,312.50
+28.3% Upside
23 analysts
Range: $3,600.00 — $4,800.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($3361.45) is 10.3% below SMA 200 ($3749.03). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
8.16:1
Expected Return
+47.2%
Bull Upside
+81.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 8.16:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of AZO?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is $5,159.87. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is AZO a buy, sell, or hold?
AZO currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 8.2:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is AZO a high-quality stock?
AutoZone, Inc. has a quality grade of A (109/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 19.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 10.4%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is AZO?
AZO is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Moderate growth: 11.8%, Compounder growth range: 11.8%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about AZO?
23 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $4,312.50 for AZO, representing +28.3% upside. Targets range from $3,600.00 to $4,800.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in AZO?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for AZO is 8.16:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 8.16:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +47.2%, with bull case upside of +81.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for AZO?
AZO is in a bearish trend. Price ($3361.45) is 10.3% below SMA 200 ($3749.03). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.