The Boeing Company (BA) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade F · Bearish
$218.90
$226.15
+3.3%
3/10
F
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $226.15 (+3.3%). Slightly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$118.92
FCF DCF Model
$284.57
EV/EBITDA
$16.89
Blended Fair Value
$226.15
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
37/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
41.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-13.0%
D/E Ratio
10.0x
Current Ratio
1.2x
Interest Coverage
-2x
FCF Positive Years
1/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -13.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 1/3 years (7/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 10.0x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -2.0x (0/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 5.4pp (need <5.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$280.50
+28.1% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $250.00 — $298.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($218.88) is 0.3% below SMA 200 ($219.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+55.8%
Bull Upside
+162.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of BA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Boeing Company (BA) is $226.15. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is BA a buy, sell, or hold?
BA currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is BA a high-quality stock?
The Boeing Company has a quality grade of F (37/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 41.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -13.0%, and D/E ratio of 10.0x.
What type of stock is BA?
BA is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 86.2x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 1.6%, High debt: D/E 10.0x, High revenue volatility: 20.4% std dev
What do Wall Street analysts say about BA?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $280.50 for BA, representing +28.1% upside. Targets range from $250.00 to $298.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in BA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for BA is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +55.8%, with bull case upside of +162.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for BA?
BA is in a bearish trend. Price ($218.88) is 0.3% below SMA 200 ($219.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.