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The Boeing Company (BA) Stock Analysis

Score D

Cyclical · Grade F · Bearish

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$218.90

Fair Value

$226.15

+3.3%

Conviction

3/10

Quality

F

Classification

Cyclical

Investment Thesis

Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.

For New Investors

Quantitative score: weak

For Current Holders

Quantitative score: low

Buy if

  • Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
  • Bull scenario catalysts materialize
  • Market-wide correction creates opportunity

Sell if

  • Bear scenario triggers occur
  • Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
  • Better alternatives emerge

Valuation

Fair Value estimate: $226.15 (+3.3%). Slightly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)

PEG-Based EPS

$118.92

FCF DCF Model

$284.57

EV/EBITDA

$16.89

Blended Fair Value

$226.15

Confidence

Low

Methods

PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA

Quality Analysis

F

37/120 points

Low Quality

ROE (3Y Avg)

41.0%

ROIC-WACC Spread

-13.0%

D/E Ratio

10.0x

Current Ratio

1.2x

Interest Coverage

-2x

FCF Positive Years

1/3

Quality Flags

  • ROIC spread: -13.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
  • FCF positive only 1/3 years (7/20 pts)
  • Leverage: D/E 10.0x (0/15 pts)
  • Interest coverage: -2.0x (0/10 pts)
  • Volatile gross margins: std dev 5.4pp (need <5.0pp)

Market Sentiment

Wall Street Consensus

$280.50

+28.1% Upside

25 analysts

Range: $250.00$298.00

Rating: Buy

Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.

Trend & Technical

Bearish

Price ($218.88) is 0.3% below SMA 200 ($219.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.

Technical Score46/100

Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.

Risk & Reward

Asymmetry Ratio

10.00:1

Expected Return

+55.8%

Bull Upside

+162.3%

Bear Downside

-10.0%

Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.

Verdict: Very Favorable

Scenario Analysis

Bear

Base

Bull

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RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the fair value of BA?

Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Boeing Company (BA) is $226.15. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.

Is BA a buy, sell, or hold?

BA currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.

Is BA a high-quality stock?

The Boeing Company has a quality grade of F (37/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 41.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -13.0%, and D/E ratio of 10.0x.

What type of stock is BA?

BA is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 86.2x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 1.6%, High debt: D/E 10.0x, High revenue volatility: 20.4% std dev

What do Wall Street analysts say about BA?

25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $280.50 for BA, representing +28.1% upside. Targets range from $250.00 to $298.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.

What are the risks of investing in BA?

The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for BA is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +55.8%, with bull case upside of +162.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.

What is the current trend for BA?

BA is in a bearish trend. Price ($218.88) is 0.3% below SMA 200 ($219.65). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.

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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.