PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bearish
$8.96
$13.44
+50.0%
5/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $13.44 (+50.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$13.44
FCF DCF Model
$13.44
Blended Fair Value
$13.44
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
35/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-4.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.9%
D/E Ratio
1.6x
Current Ratio
2.0x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -4.0% (need >18%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -0.9pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.6x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 0.7x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$9.00
+0.4% Upside
7 analysts
Range: $9.00 — $16.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($8.96) is 19.5% below SMA 200 ($11.13). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 39/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+66.1%
Bull Upside
+158.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) is $13.44. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is PD a buy, sell, or hold?
PD currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 5/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is PD a high-quality stock?
PagerDuty, Inc. has a quality grade of F (35/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -4.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.9%, and D/E ratio of 1.6x.
What type of stock is PD?
PD is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Low P/E: 4.3x, High FCF Yield: 13.7%, Mature growth: 8.9%, High debt: D/E 1.6x
What do Wall Street analysts say about PD?
7 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $9.00 for PD, representing +0.4% upside. Targets range from $9.00 to $16.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PD is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +66.1%, with bull case upside of +158.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PD?
PD is in a bearish trend. Price ($8.96) is 19.5% below SMA 200 ($11.13). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 39/100.
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Last updated: June 12, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.